UK Manufacturers Expect Output To Recover In Months Ahead: CBI

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British manufacturers expect output to begin recovery in months ahead for the first time since the Covid-19 crisis hit the economy, the quarterly Industrial Trends Survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed Thursday.

A balance of manufacturers forecasting output to recover in the next quarter came in at +15 percent, the first increase since February 2020.

According to the survey, the output volumes declined in the quarter to July, with the balance falling to -59 percent from -57 percent in June.

At the same time, the order book balance fell at the fastest rate since October 1980. The indicator came in at -60 percent versus -25 percent in April.

A balance of 9 percent expects order book to pick up in the next three months. Domestic orders are forecast to rise, while export orders are expected to fall at a slower pace.

In July, the order book balance rose to -46 percent from -58 percent in June. The expected balance was -38 percent.

Rain Newton-Smith, CBI chief economist, said “Manufacturers continue to face extreme hardship due to the COVID-19 crisis.”

There are tentative signs of gradual recovery on the horizon, with firms expecting output and orders to begin to pick up in the next three months, the economist said. But demand still remains deeply depressed.


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